Friday, December 21, 2007
Champions League Final 16
The draw for the final 16 of the Champions League was held today so I figured I'd do some power rankings and predictions. The power rankings are based on how strong I think each side is and does not take into account the difficulty of their draw.
1. Inter - With Ibrahimovic taking his game to the next level, Inter really has it all - they have so much depth at striker that they can loan a player as talented as Adriano out (to Sao Paulo) getting nothing in return. So far, they've lost 1 match all season in all competitions and done it without the contributions of Patrick Vieira or Marco Materazzi. With the depth of their squad, they have to be considered favorites.
2. Real Madrid - Real hasn't been quite as impressive as Inter so far this season but they've been on great form as well. They seem to have solved the problem they had with the 'Galacticos' by building a team instead of just a bunch of flashy stars. Don't get me wrong, they do have some offensive stars with guys like Robinho (playing like one of the best in the world currently), Raul, Sneijder, and Ruud van Nistelrooy. But they also have some fantastic role players, like powerhouse midfielder Mahamadou Diarra and Guti, not to mention a very solid defense anchored by Cannavaro, Ramos, and Casillas. They will no doubt be distracted by a tighter league race than it looks like Inter will have to deal with, but they certainly have the quality and the depth to go all the way in the Champions League as well.
3. Manchester United - After a bit of a struggle early in the year, Man U has been playing great recently. With Ronaldo, Rooney, Giggs and Tevez they certainly have the offensive firepower while Scholes' return will give them a boost in the center of the midfield where Hargreaves and Anderson are now settled in. What is sometimes overlooked regarding Man U is how good their defense is - Rio, Vidic, Brown, and Evra is currently the best back 4 in the Premiership and one of the best in the world.
4. Barcelona - Barca has struggled a bit away from home and some early season struggles should've been expected from a team with so many new players. I expect them to start gelling some in the second half of the season and they should be a big threat in both La Liga and the Champions League. Messi, Eto'o, and Ronaldinho in attack, Yaya Toure, Xavi, and Iniesta holding down the midfield, and Puyol, Milito, Zambrotta, and Abidal in defense looks like a great first team. The crazy thing is I had to leave out Henry, Deco, Gudjohnsen, Marquez, and Thuram to make that first team. The pieces are there, though to me, the most important player is probably Yaya Toure, someone has to do all the ball-winning in the midfield to let those attacking players shine and Toure is really the only option. An injury to him would be devastating.
5. Arsenal - I have a feeling that Arsenal won't be making too deep a run in the Champions League this year, with Le Boss instead choosing to focus all of his team's attention on winning the Premiership. Not to say they will be fielding weakened sides or anything of the sort but I definitely think the Premier League is priority #1, even more so than any of the teams listed above. With that said, Arsenal can field a side which may not have as many huge stars as other top teams but that is a true team and can compete with anyone. Almunia, Clichy, Toure, Gallas, Sagna, Rosicky, Flamini, Cesc, Hleb, van Persie, and Adebayor (or Eboue instead of Rosicky or van Persie) is a side I am very confident in.
6. Chelsea - Chelsea, who might not be in the Premier League title race, will probably focus on winning that elusive Champions League crown more than any other big club. I would have them rated higher if it weren't for all the injuries - both Drogba and Terry out for extended time periods is a killer to them. But if those two are fully healthy by the quarters, they can certainly beat anyone. I'm just not confident that they'll be at the top of their games with Terry with a serious foot injury and Drogba with knee surgery followed by a month playing at the African Nations Cup.
7. Milan - terrible form in Serie A where they currently sit 11th but that's the same story as last year at this time and they went on to win the whole thing. But this team is certainly aging so it really will take a string of unbelievable performances from Kaka for them to make another run. He's done it before so there's always a chance...
8. Liverpool - similar situation to Chelsea where they might be out of the Premier League title race, though unlike Chelsea, as a club the Premiership is absolutely priority #s 1, 2, 3, and 4, so they might not have the same hunger since they have had so much success in the Champions League the past 3 years. With that said, you can't count Liverpool out in a knockout competition after how well they have done in these under Rafa Benitez. With Torres around (and Babel and Benayoun) and Macherano fully entrenched in the team, Liverpool are stronger this year than last so they could easily make a run and win the whole thing. I think these 8 clubs could all legitimately win the CL this season and there's a drop-off after them.
9. Roma - I could see them making a deep run but I can't really see them winning it all. De Rossi, Perrotta, and Pizarro are a good trio in midfield while they also have a pretty good defense. They have very good wing play with the likes of Mancini, Giuly, and Taddei. And of course Totti is always dangerous up top and Mirko Vucinic has been in great form. Good team but not sure I can see them going farther than the semis.
10. Lyon - After 6 straight French titles and never advancing past the quarters in the CL, the Champions League means everything to Lyon. There's still a lot of quality in the team, Juninho, Kallstrom, Govou, et al are established while Benzema, Ben Arfa, and Toulalan are outstanding young players. They could also receive a huge boost if Coupet and Cris return to full health. So it's still a strong side but it's hard not to wonder how good they could be if they could just hold onto all their players. In the past few years they've lost Essien and Malouda to Chelsea, Abidal to Barca, and Diarra to Real Madrid. It's hard to continually lose players of that quality to the clubs that you will be directly competing against in the CL.
11. Porto - I can't see them making a run like they did 4 years ago, but they do have a solid team, as they showed by winning Liverpool's qualifying group. I have particularly been impressed by Quaresma every time I have watched him.
12. Sevilla - so-so to poor form in La Liga but still managed to win Arsenal's qualifying group (granted this group was a joke and the only really impressive game from Sevilla was their 3-1 win over the Gunners). They definitely have some quality players - Kanoute and Fabiano is a great striking pair and Jesus Navas looks to be a great winger, and of course, Dani Alves. When they're playing well, they can play with anybody (as evidenced by that 3-1 win over a weakened Arsenal side and especially their 2-0 win over Real). Unfortunately, they haven't been on top of their game very often so far this year.
13. Schalke 04 - the only German side in the last 16, I can't see them going too far. Kuranyi is a good striker, I like Rafinha, and Pander (if healthy). Quarters is about as far as I could see them going. They should have a great home atmosphere.
14. Celtic - Should also have a great home field advantage but probably don't have enough quality to make any sort of run.
15. Fenerbache - don't know a whole lot about them, except that Turkish crowds are absolutely insane. I'll be rooting for them.
16. Olympiakos - and the last of the not as good sides that will have outstanding home atmospheres. They gave Real a couple of stiff tests and knocked a pretty good Werder Bremen side out so they certainly are not completely hopeless.
Predictions
Here's the draw and my picks:
-Inter over Liverpool - toughest possible draw for Liverpool, Inter is just too good for them, though this will be a really interesting tie to watch.
-Chelsea over Olympiakos - Chelsea lucks out with an easier draw when Drogba and Terry might not be at full strength.
-Real over Roma - should be very tight but Real slips through.
-Schalke over Porto - Schalke 'upsets' Porto and is the team everyone wants to draw in the quarters.
-Arsenal over Milan - another great matchup, you really thought I'd pick against the Gunners?
-Barca over Celtic - probably the biggest mismatch of this round, Barca will roll.
-Sevilla over Fenerbache - Sevilla continues its good form in the CL in what will also be a tight matchup.
-Man U over Lyon - I'd love to pick the upset but Man U is just too good a side, maybe if Lyon had Essien and Diarra controlling the midfield I could do it.
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