Last Post Here

From now on, I'll be posting on Jeremy's blog...

Clean Sweep

I'm pretty pumped after Obama's clean sweep of Nebraska, Louisiana, and Washington (with 20+ point margins in each).  Yeah, yeah, the demographics of these states favored Obama, Hillary expected to lose, blah, blah, blah.  Well you know what?  The rest of February favors Obama also and if Hillary is shut out she's done.  Just like Giuliani, you can't pin all of your hopes on some state(s) that are a month away and endure a string of losses where your opponent gains invaluable momentum.  Virginia looked like it could've been a toss-up but right now Obama is polling 15-20 points ahead, so it looks like the Potomac Primaries will all 3 go to Obama also.  Wisconsin's primary (on Feb. 19) is probably Hillary's best shot in February for a win but by that point Obama will have a 7 state winning streak (assuming he wins Maine's caucuses tomorrow which is probably not a given but them being caucuses certainly is a big advantage for him) and all the momentum.  Not to mention, he has already been destroying her in the midwest, so even though the polls are close right now, I'd be shocked if Hillary won Wisconsin.  I just can't see her winning Texas and Ohio decisively after 2 weeks where Obama, with all the momentum, can focus solely on these 2 states.  Maybe I'm being too optimistic but in my opinion, things are looking great for Obama right now (and this is not even taking into account all the play the national polls where Obama is consistently doing better vs. McCain than Hillary is have been getting recently).

Pearl Jam

I've always liked Pearl Jam but recently I've started to really get into them more.  I just randomly came across this great live performance of a great song (Porch).  It makes me jealous that Jeremy has seen them live 30 times or whatever...

Writers' Strike Over?

It appears that the writers' strike might finally be coming to an end.  Perfect timing too so now they can get back to filming those last 8 episodes of the new season of LOST.

Looking Ahead

In the next week, there are 8 more primaries or caucuses for the Democrats, so after the Super Tuesday draw, these should be vitally important.  Here they are, with my guess as to who is favored.

 

Saturday Feb. 9

-Louisiana - 67 delegates - in the south, large black population, should be a huge Obama win right?

-Nebraska - 31 delegates - Obama just won huge in Kansas, and like Kansas, these are also caucuses, where Obama has yet to lose because of his superior ground organization.  Also hugely favors Obama.

-Washington - 97 delegates - I honestly have no idea how this is trending or what the demographics are.  My guess is that Obama won't be able to draw on the dislike of the Clintons in the Pacific NW like he can in the Midwest and that he doesn't have the advantage of a large black segment of the electorate like in the South.  But I at least characterize the Pacific NW as very progressive which should definitely help Obama (not sure of how many Latinos there are though).  Anyways, Washington is also a caucus state so Obama should certainly win but this might be the best Feb. 9 state for Hillary to challenge in.

-Virgin Islands - 9 delegates - not that it matters but Obama should win this too I'd guess.

 

Sunday Feb. 10

-Maine - 34 delegates - another caucus, I'd expect Obama to win pretty easily.

 

Tuesday Feb. 12

-District of Columbia - 37 delegates, Maryland - 99 delegates, Virginia - 101 delegates - these 3 all should favor Obama in a big way.  My guess is Virginia has the chance to be the closest, but that really is just a guess. 

 

Obama has more money and has already been airing ads in all of these states while Hillary was still solely focused on Super Tuesday.  The fact that she is not expected to do well over the next week should soften the blow some but if she loses every one of these contests, Obama should gain some huge momentum (not to mention a lead in delegates won and perhaps in overall delegates too).  The only other races in February are Hawaii and Wisconsin (both of which also favor Obama) so he'll really need all that momentum because March 4th is Ohio and Texas (161 and 228 delegates) and right now both of these states favor Hillary in a pretty big way.  My hope is that his momentum from probably a 10 state winning streak, his money advantage, and the fact that he'll have 2 weeks between Feb. 19 and March 4 to solely focus on Ohio and Texas (he's had huge bumps the more time he spends in a state) will allow him to at least be very competitive in these two states.  Either way, the rest of February at least looks really good for Obama.

Delegate Count

This site has a good running total of delegates won (much better than any of the news site are providing at the moment).  As of right now, Hillary won Super Tuesday 655-640, but California still has 210 delegates not yet assigned (good for Hillary obviously).  However, Georgia, Illinois, and Colorado have a combined 103 delegates not yet assigned also, and since Obama won each of these of states by huge margins that should more or less offset the California delegates and we'll end up with Hillary winning Super Tuesday by a very very small margin (looks like my hope that Obama could keep it within 50-100 delegates was a little too conservative).  Basically after Super Tuesday, delegates won (so not counting super delegates -  Obama was up by 15 coming in) should be a virtual tie.

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday didn't go quite as well as I hoped in some states (Cali, Mass, NJ) but all in all, it isn't a bad result at all for Obama.  It truly is a split decision, Obama won more states (13 to 8 right now with NM still up in the air) but Hillary did better in the big states.  To show just how close it is, the total 'popular vote' for each candidate as of 2:30 AM tonight (using CNN's numbers) is 6,212,188 for Obama and 6,186,726 for Hillary.  For Obama to compete like that nationally really is impressive, especially considering he was losing in just about every one of these states two weeks ago besides Illinois.  The states coming up favor Obama so if he can stay within 50-100 delegates after everything is tallied up today, then he has a legit chance to have a lead in delegates by the end of the month.  It really is still up in the air but I'm hoping that having the primaries spread out more now will benefit Obama, as will his money advantage. 

4 things I'm excited about

So there are four things over the next two days that I would normally really be looking forward to individually and by coincidence or divine providence they are all happening in a short period of time.  They are: Super Tuesday, Duke at UNC, Mexico vs. USA and national signing day for college football recruits.  Just for fun, I'll rate my excitement (in order):

 

1. Duke/UNC - 10/10 on the excitement scale - #2 vs. #3 (damn you Memphis for not losing and setting up #1 vs. #2), at the Dean Dome, I'm going, it doesn't get a whole better than that (well unless Ty Lawson was playing that is).

 

2. Super Tuesday - also a 10 but loses out to Duke/UNC for me, though I wouldn't have thought an election (and even more a primary) could get this close to the biggest game in college basketball in my eyes.  But what I can say, my Obama boner is raging.  Like Duke/UNC, I'm hoping for the best but still preparing for the worst.  Put me on suicide watch if Hillary wins big and the Heels lose as well.

 

3. Mexico/USA - 8/10 - would be more excited if it was a qualifier instead of a friendly but Mexico is bringing a really strong team and the US hasn't had a big game in a while, so I'm getting pretty pumped (sadly I'll have to watch it recorded since it's on at the exact same time as Duke/UNC - as many nights as I've got nothing to watch and the two best sporting events in a while have to be on at the exact same time?).  I'm especially excited to see Adu and Altidore, not to mention the scoring machine Michael Bradley (he has literally been scoring every game for Heerenveen for the last month now and has 16 goals on the season - and he's a midfielder!).

 

4. National signing day - 7/10 - I've been following UNC's football recruiting more this year than ever in the past so I'm pretty excited for this.  We've got a decent class so far but signing day is huge and there are several big recruits we're still in the picture for.  Though I'm not nearly as obsessive about college football as basketball, it would be pretty cool to have a good football team, and with Butch Davis at the helm, I'm sure we'll eventually get there.

Could it be?

Checking out some of the new polls and man they look good for Obama.  Ahead by 1 and 6 points in California in 2 different polls.  Ahead by 22 points in Georgia.  Ahead by 5 points in Missouri.  Ahead by 3 points and behind by 1 points in 2 different national.  Behind by only 6 points in New Jersey.  I'm hesitant to get my hopes up after the NH polling debacle but I am definitely cautiously optimistic for tomorrow.

Once - 8.5

Once tells the story of two lost souls who find each other, and themselves, over the course of a music-filled week in Dublin.  Its indie roots and plot, along with its subtlety and intelligence, remind me of Before Sunrise and Before Sunset with very good music substituted for realistic dialogue.  And while I'm not normally a fan of musicals, the songs in this film undoubtedly work.  Not only were they 'good' songs in general, they advance the plot in a creative and unique way.  I found myself moved (not to tears mind you but moved none the less) by this movie and the passion evident in the music (which was written and performed by the two lead actors) played a huge role in this.  To top it all off, in contrast to another relatively similar movie like Garden State that was entertaining and admirable throughout but cheapened itself by taking the easy way out when it came time to provide a conclusion, Once had a pitch-perfect ending that was worthy of the excellence of the rest of the film.  I will eventually post my final 2007 movie rankings after I see I'm Not There, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and a few others, but it is safe to say that as of right now the only movie I'd definitely rank above Once is Atonement.

LOST

While I was not blown away by the season premier of LOST tonight, I did really enjoy it and like the direction it is going in. It definitely felt like an episode meant to set the stage more than anything else. The switch to flash-forwards is brilliant since the flashbacks were becoming more and more superfluous towards the end of last season. There's still tons of mysteries out there (of course) and more questions than answers but I am excited to see where it goes from here with Jack vs. Locke, who are the other 3 besides Jack, Hurley, and Kate that are part of the 'Oceanic 6', what happened to everyone else that didn't get off the island (if not dead, still on the island I presume? Jack betrayed them in some way to get off maybe...), who was in the casket in the season 3 finale, who are the people from the Naomi's boat, etc, etc. And oh yeah, what the hell is going on with this Jacob stuff? On that note, a screenshot from what Hurley saw in the cabin: Yep that looks like Jack's dad and no that doesn't look like the 'Jacob' Locke saw last season (that Jacob actually looked a lot like Locke). No clue what it means but certainly an interesting twist. I hate that we have to wait a week for a new episode and hate it even more that in all likelihood the damn writers' strike is going to leave us with only 8 episodes this season. I just hope those 8 episodes are as good as the last 8 from last year.

Here Comes Barack

Just saw these new polls, presumably taken after SC and the Kennedy endorsement (but before Edwards dropped out). It is now a tie in Connecticut, Hillary leading Massachusetts by only 6 points (she was up by 37 points in the previous poll listed on that site), and even more importantly only 3 points in California (she also had a double digit lead in Cali in previous polls). Even if he loses, cutting down the margin in Massachusetts is important because it has 121 delegates. If Obama can do better in NY than Hillary does in Illinois and then blow her out in Georgia (don't know if this is likely or not but definitely lots of black voters there so hopefully similar to SC) and keep it close in Mass and New Jersey (again not sure how close he'll be able to keep it in NJ) then Obama comes out about even in the non-Cali 100+ delegate states, which seemed to favor Hillary heavily a week ago. In most of the smaller states, Obama seems like he has the advantage, though it varies from state to state of course. So if we assume Obama can come out with only a small loss from NY, NJ, Mass, Illinois, and Georgia and beat Hillary in the rest, then California will be the huge momentum shift. If he closes the gap even more (apparently Ted Kennedy is campaigning hard for him there) and can manage to win California, then Obama will be our next president. If winning such a diverse state, without all that many black people, doesn't give Obama the ever-elusive electable tag, I don't know what will. Even more importantly, Cali has a whole shit ton of delegates (441). Winning is obviously ideal, especially for the media coverage and the opportunity to spin it into momentum for future states, but it now looks like he'll at least be able to keep it close and more or less split the delegates at worst, which is much better than it looked pre-SC. It should be really interesting but there's my optimistic blueprint for a successful Super Tuesday for Obama - keep it real close in Massachusetts (the Kennedy endorsement has to help here right?), keep it somewhat close in NY and NJ, win big in Illinois and Georgia, take an overall victory from the rest of the states, and win in Cali (or at worst lose small). Now come on Edwards, endorse Obama and keep the momentum going (and you too Al Gore).

There Will Be Blood - 8.5

Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood, the story of a singularly motivated early 20th century oil tycoon, reminds me of No Country for Old Men in a lot of ways. It is perfectly crafted, there's a purpose behind every single shot, it works tirelessly to create an authentic atmosphere, and it is light on dialogue and heavy on top notch acting. But like No Country for Old Men, while watching There Will Be Blood, I found myself wondering where's the heart? With No Country there are a few likable characters at least, a class of being more or less non-existent in There Will Be Blood. But then I realized this movie doesn't need likable characters, it offers a much more rewarding experience by building up and tearing down its main character and leaving the viewer confused about what to think and feel. Instead of offering up a hero, There Will Be Blood provides a fantastic anti-hero - savvy, hard-working, intelligent yes, but also completely cold and heartless and without a care for anyone else other than himself in the entire world. It wouldn't have worked nearly as well if it didn't have Daniel Day-Lewis, the greatest currently working actor and one of the greatest of all-time, immersing himself in the lead role. Daniel Day-Lewis giving a standout performance is to be expected but just as importantly Paul Dano (who played the voluntarily mute son in Little Miss Sunshine) offers a legitimate foil to Day-Lewis' oil man with his prophetic preacher. As the story develops, the relationship between Day-Lewis and Dano's characters is one of the most interesting aspects of this film. Similar in theme and scope to Citizen Kane, There Will Be Blood would be a worthy Best Picture winner and Day-Lewis, in my eyes at least, is a mortal lock for Best Actor.

Ratatouille - 8.0

I finally got around to watching Ratatouille (in beautiful bluray) and came away very impressed. There were only a few laugh out loud moments (for me at least) but I was consistently entertained and even ended up rooting for the characters, which is quite a feat for an animated movie. With a very good screenplay (deservedly nominated for an Oscar), I appreciated that this movie steered clear of going for stupid easy laughs unlike some other recent animated movies (Shrek 3) and also didn't over indulge in slapstick. As it was, the few very well done slapstick sequences were perfect and some of the best moments of the entire movie. I haven't liked some of the other highly lauded recent Pixar efforts that much (like Finding Nemo) but this movie really won me over about half way through and ended up being impossible not to like. Bravo Brad Bird, creating this and The Incredibles, I anoint you animation genius.

The Science of Sleep - 7.5

The Science of Sleep is Michel Gondry's follow up to the brilliant Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, well follow up in tone and theme at least if not chronological order because Gondry did direct the also very good documentary Dave Chappelle's Block Party in between. The Science of Sleep stars Gael Garcia Bernal as a creative young man whose dreams intertwine with his waking life - sometimes so much so that he can't tell the difference. The plot takes off when Bernal falls in love with an equally artistic young French woman named Stephanie(played by Charlotte Gainsbourg) who he wants to share his world with. Similar to Eternal Sunshine, Gondry seamlessly weaves real life with Bernal's dream world. This tactic serves its purpose but sometimes I found myself wishing they'd just get back to the real plot. That's only a minor quibble though because overall this was a well-crafted, involving movie that also managed to find some emotional resonance due to Bernal's extremely likable character's romance with Stephanie.

Thank You For Smoking - 7.0

Thank You For Smoking is a funny, relatively smart satire of the way lobbyists do their jobs. Aaron Eckhart gives a charismatic performance as the fast-talking tobacco lobbyist who can seemingly argue his way out of anything but is caught in a moral dilemma when trying to reconcile his line of work with setting a good example for his son. It's an entertaining movie that flies by at only a 1.5 hour runtime but is really nothing too special - if I had written this review right after I finished it, it would've gotten at least a point higher but now, a few days later, I realize it wasn't all that memorable.

Obama!

Obama's victory speech (part 1 and part 2) from last night's huge win over Hillary. Super Tuesday should be interesting... I also should have reviews up in the next day or two of There Will Be Blood, Ratatouille, Thank You for Smoking, and The Science of Sleep.

Oscar Nominations

Oscar nominations were released today - glancing through, no real huge surprises. My predictions were actually pretty damn good (pat myself on the back) other than thinking American Gangster would be a big contender (only got a nomination in supporting actress for Ruby Dee out of the big categories). Best Actor and Best Actress did offer some surprises, with Tommy Lee Jones (for In the Valley of Elah) and Viggo Mortensen (for Eastern Promises) picking up nominations and Denzel and James McAvoy (among others) getting snubbed. For Best Actress, Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth 2) and Laura Linney (The Savages) each picked up nominations and unfortunately Keira Knightley was snubbed. Outside of no nominations for Knightley and Denzel I'm pretty happy with everything. Jeremy will be happy to see Michael Clayton heavily represented (a little more heavily than I had thought it would). Here are the nominations, and in italics my early pick for the winner: Best Picture No Country for Old Men Atonement Juno There Will Be Blood Michael Clayton Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood George Clooney, Michael Clayton Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah Best Actress Julie Christie, Away From Her Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose Ellen Page, Juno Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age Laura Linney, The Savages Best Supporting Actor Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton Best Supporting Actress Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone Saoirse Ronan, Atonement Ruby Dee, American Gangster Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton Best Director Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood Jason Reitman, Juno Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Best Adapted Screenplay No Country for Old Men There Will Be Blood Atonement The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Away From Her Best Original Screenplay Juno Michael Clayton The Savages Ratatouille Lars and the Real Girl

John Edwards

Saw this letter from Martin Luther King Jr.'s son to Edwards. I can't believe that us democrats have two outstanding candidates like John Edwards and Barack Obama, both of whom I would be proud to vote for, and yet, in all likelihood, we're still going to nominate Hillary, who will not only be a worse president (in my opinion of course) but who also has a much greater chance of losing the general election. It really is unbelievable to me. Anyways, here's the letter:

Dear Senator Edwards:

It was good meeting with you yesterday and discussing my father's legacy. On the day when the nation will honor my father, I wanted to follow up with a personal note.

There has been, and will continue to be, a lot of back and forth in the political arena over my father's legacy. It is a commentary on the breadth and depth of his impact that so many people want to claim his legacy. I am concerned that we do not blur the lines and obscure the truth about what he stood for: speaking up for justice for those who have no voice.

I appreciate that on the major issues of health care, the environment, and the economy, you have framed the issues for what they are -- a struggle for justice. And, you have almost single-handedly made poverty an issue in this election.

You know as well as anyone that the 37 million people living in poverty have no voice in our system. They don't have lobbyists in Washington and they don't get to go to lunch with members of Congress. Speaking up for them is not politically convenient. But, it is the right thing to do.

I am disturbed by how little attention the topic of economic justice has received during this campaign. I want to challenge all candidates to follow your lead, and speak up loudly and forcefully on the issue of economic justice in America.

From our conversation yesterday, I know this is personal for you. I know you know what it means to come from nothing. I know you know what it means to get the opportunities you need to build a better life. And, I know you know that injustice is alive and well in America, because millions of people will never get the same opportunities you had.

I believe that now, more than ever, we need a leader who wakes up every morning with the knowledge of that injustice in the forefront of their minds, and who knows that when we commit ourselves to a cause as a nation, we can make major strides in our own lifetimes. My father was not driven by an illusory vision of a perfect society. He was driven by the certain knowledge that when people of good faith and strong principles commit to making things better, we can change hearts, we can change minds, and we can change lives.

So, I urge you: keep going. Ignore the pundits, who think this is a horserace, not a fight for justice. My dad was a fighter. As a friend and a believer in my father's words that injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere, I say to you: keep going. Keep fighting. My father would be proud.

Sincerely,

Martin L. King, III

USA 2, Sweden 0, the African Cup of Nations

Unfortunately, I missed the US's 2-0 victory over Sweden this weekend because I was in Charleston. Both teams fielded very weakened sides with all the big European leagues currently in action (besides the Bundesliga), with the US going almost all with MLS players (and a few that play in Scandinavia where clubs are still on winter break) and Sweden using domestic-based players as well. The goal-scorers for the US were UNC grad Eddie Robinson (in his first cap) and Landon Donovan, who now holds the all-time US scoring record. Jozy Altidore played the 2nd half and drew the PK that Donovan converted. I wish I could've watched if for no other reason than to see him in action again. Not a whole lot can be taken from a game like this but it is nice for the US to start winning again, now with 3 consecutive victories leading up to our next game, a February 6th friendly against Mexico. In other soccer news, the African Cup of Nations started over the weekend but unfortunately is not being televised at all in the US (not even on setanta or goltv). I still might try to catch some games from online feeds but I'm pretty disappointed there's not going to be any on TV. The Ivory Coast beat Nigeria 1-0 today in a game that probably featured as many top-tier players (Drogba, Kolo Toure, Yaya Toure, Kalou, Eboue, and Mikel are all key players on clubs still left in the Champions League, not to mention Yakubu, Kanu, Zokora, Meite, Martins, Utaka, and Yobo, all who are regulars on solid EPL sides) as any international match outside of a Brazil/Argentina WC qualifier until the Euro this summer. Ivory Coast definitely has the strongest team in the tournament and beating Nigeria today was their biggest hurdle in group play so they should be advancing (though Mali with their trio of Kanoute, Diarra, and Keita might have something to say in this group as well, Nigeria/Mali will be a very interesting match). Cameroon, Tunisia, Egypt, Senegal, and Nigeria could all theoretically challenge for the title but my guess is that the biggest challenge to Ivory Coast will be the hosts, Ghana who unfortunately are playing without Stephen Appiah. But with Essien and Muntari anchoring the midfield, they should be pretty tough to beat. Even so, Ivory Coast are the favorites for a reason and I expect they'll go one step farther than 2 years ago when they lost to Egypt (the hosts) in PKs in the final.

Mike Huckabee

Just saw this quote from Mike Huckabee on perez hilton's blog:

"I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution," Huckabee told a Michigan audience on Monday. "But I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living god. And that's what we need to do — to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view.

So much for separation of church and state if this idiot is elected president - he, of course, doesn't have a great shot but we did elect GWB twice so I'm not putting anything past us.

The Kingdom - 6.0

The Kingdom works relatively well as an action drama with a pretty interesting plot, dealing with an FBI team's investigation of a terrorist attack on an American oil company in Saudi Arabia. This FBI team happens to be quit star-studded with Jamie Foxx, Jennifer Garner, Jason Bateman, and Chris Cooper all involved. Directed by Peter Berg (of Friday Night Lights fame) and produced by the one and only Michael Mann, the production is top notch and there are some very good action scenes. However, the movie ends up falling short by basically half-assing it when it came to the political side of the plot, kind of delving into why this terrorist attack happened and why the US is so hesitant to send investigators, but not really going into it all the way. It is also cringe-worthy how heavy-handed the final scene is. And oh yeah, it suffers from what I'll call the action movie syndrome, where the villains have seemingly never shot a gun before and the heroes are invincible. But even with these faults, this was a decently interesting and entertaining movie. One other positive note - this movie had an astounding amount of actors from TV shows I like/liked - Jennifer Garner (Alias), Jason Bateman (Arrested Development), Jeremy Piven (Entourage), and the dad from Six Feet Under all have prominent roles. And then Coach Taylor and Lyla Garrity from Friday Night Lights even show up for a scene each. I also could've sworn I saw Daniels from The Wire in there for a second but he didn't show up on imdb so I guess I was wrong on that one. Oscar Outlook Should be a contender in all the big categories...just kidding of course. No chance for any nominations.

La Vie En Rose - 7.0

La Vie En Rose is a relatively standard musical biopic dealing with Edith Piaf, an apparently legendary French chanteuse. It does deviate from standard genre fare by not telling a linear story, instead jumping around to different points of Piaf's life. I normally love this type of story-telling but I'm not sure how necessary it was in this movie. One thing it did do was highlight the quality of the lead actress, Marion Cotillard. In one scene, she's playing a 20 something singer on the rise and in the next a 50-year-old broken down woman on her death bed, and is equally convincing in both. She really did a wonderful job and it's easy to see where the Oscar buzz is coming from in her case. It did lose points for excessive melodrama but overall, while not exceptional, it was a pretty good movie. Oscar Outlook Persepolis was chosen as France's submission for the Best Foreign Language Film category, so La Vie En Rose (and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly as well) can't be nominated there (talk about a stupid rule, if all 5 of the best foreign language films are from the same country, then they should all be nominated). Anyways, perhaps a Best Song nomination(s) are in order and certainly a Best Actress nomination for Cotillard. Now her chances of winning are another question. She just won the Golden Globe for Best Performance in a Comedy/Musical over Ellen Page who figures to be her biggest competition along with Julie Christie for the Oscar, so that bodes well for her. It should be a really interesting race - I personally think Cotillard gave the best performance of the three, but all three were excellent. Predictions Best Actress Nomination - Cotillard can't overcome Julie Christie

About a Boy - 8.0

About a Boy is a light, effective romantic comedy. More in the mold of Love Actually (also very good) than most of the shit that inhabits this genre, it mostly avoids going for cheap laughs and melodrama. While there were only a few laugh out loud moments, it was consistently entertaining throughout. Hugh Grant is good as the charismatic loner and one of my favorites, Rachel Weisz, even shows up as a love interest for him. Very solid movie.

Venus - 3.0

Venus tells the story of a dying man's relationship with a young woman. I watched it because Peter O'Toole played the dying man and was nominated for an Oscar for his performance last year. While O'Toole certainly did a fine job (though I must say I'm glad Forrest Whitaker ended up beating him out), I could never get past the creepiness of an old ass man in an at times sexual relationship with a 20 year old girl. Since this relationship was the linchpin of the movie and any emotional resonance that it produced would come from the viewer buying into it, the movie obviously failed pretty miserably in my eyes since I was cringing half the time the two main characters were on screen together. Maybe because I never cared about the characters a whole lot, I also found the story pretty dull. O'Toole's evolution from former leading man into crotchety old man was the only bright spot in this disappointing drama and even that had an air of been there, done that (Henry Fonda's performance in On Golden Pond immediately comes to mind as a better version of the same transformation).

The Wire, Season 5

I watched the first two episodes of the fifth and final season of The Wire tonight and it's as good as ever. I will miss the school scenes from season 4 but Michael and Dukie (and Bug) have been seamlessly incorporated into the show with new roles and the newspaper story arch looks promising to say the least (the black editor is a great character). It really is firing on all cylinders - it's so good that I don't hesitate to call it the best show of all-time at this point (though admittedly my sense of all-time in the TV universe only goes back 10 years at the most).

Oh baby

Obama now has a double digit lead in New Hampshire over Hillary according to a new poll. It's really looking like he might actually get the nomination. A presidential candidate I'd be proud to vote for...

Top Films of 2007

Here's my list of the top movies from 2007 that I've seen thus far. The only movies that I still must see are There Will Be Blood, I'm Not There, and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly while I'll probably eventually watch several others as well. Anyways here's the list as it stands right now. 1. Atonement 2. Gone Baby Gone 3. American Gangster 4. Michael Clayton 5. The Bourne Ultimatum 6. Juno 7. 300 8. Superbad 9. Eastern Promises 10. Knocked Up 11. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 12. Zodiac 13. Sweeney Todd 14. Away From Her 15. Charlie Wilson's War 16. No Country for Old Men 17. Rescue Dawn 18. Ocean's Thirteen 19. Sicko 20. Rocket Science 21. Mr. Brooks 22. Transformers 23. 3:10 to Yuma 24. Shooter 25. Live Free or Die Hard 26. Reign Over Me 27. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 28. The Simpsons Movie 29. Spiderman 3 30. Shrek the Third Atonement is easily my #1 but from #2 (Gone Baby Gone) to #16 (No Country for Old Men) there isn't much difference in my eyes and if asked I would say all of those are good movies. And as you can tell from the bottom of my list, I thought the big blockbusters from this year were pretty terrible.

Juno - 8.0

Juno succeeds both as a comedy and a drama. It is successful as a relatively realistic portrayal of what a (albeit very witty) teenage pregnant girl trying to give her baby away for adoption might go through. It never downplays the seriousness of this situation but remains funny and entertaining at the same time - quite a feat. The lead actress, Ellen Page, is excellent, as is the script. The supporting cast is also solid, with Michael Cera playing the awkward teenage male to perfection once again. Overall, a very good movie. Oscar Outlook Juno is getting hype for a Best Picture nomination, as well as Best Actress and Supporting Actress. It also will be a contender for original screenplay. Like Little Miss Sunshine its status as lighter than its competition could help it in the Best Picture category, at least for receiving a nomination. Page seems a lock for a nomination and Jennifer Garner has a chance for her first as well, though her competition is going to be really tough. Predictions Best Picture nomination Best Actress nomination for Page Best Original Sceenplay Win - this seems like the typical comedy with a serious side (like Sideways or Little Miss Sunshine) that will get lose for Best Picture but succeed in screenplay.

Charlie Wilson's War - 7.0

I mostly agree with Jeremy's review of Charlie Wilson's War. It is indeed trapped between genres and the tone is strange at times. Its primary strength is Aaron Sorkin's snappy script which takes advantage of the charisma of the lead actors, in particular Hanks and Philip Seymour Hoffman, who really was exceptional. I was relieved Sorkin never went too far with the heavy-handedness, instead simply showing how easy it was for Charlie Wilson to get billions of dollars for weapons for Afghanistan and how hard it was for him to get a (one) million dollars for schools. American foreign policy in a nut shell right there. Anyways, this movie was both entertaining and made some interesting political points but suffered because by trying to do both, it excelled at neither. Oscar Outlook Charlie Wilson's War is certainly a contender in pretty much every big category, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Director, Picture, Adapted Screenplay. Ultimately, I think it will suffer because there were so many political films this year that flopped so horribly (Rendition, In the Valley of Elah, etc) so it is likely to get thrown into that group as well, especially with less than stellar box office numbers. So even though it's a quality movie and will get a look, I think it definitely has an uphill battle to receive nominations in the major categories. Predictions Best Supporting Actor nomination for Hoffman - PSH was outstanding and should get his 2nd Oscar nomination Best Adapted Screenplay nomination - the competition is stiff here (Atonement, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, among others all fall into this category) but Sorkin's script was good enough that he should get Charlie Wilson's War a second nomination.

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - 7.5

I am not at all a fan of musicals but Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd is easily the best I've seen in recent years (overcoming some oh so stiff competition I know). First of all, the music is good, obviously a key factor. I wasn't bored during the songs and actually enjoyed them for the most part. Second of all, the singing more or less served the plot. A big pet peeve of mine is the 10 minute song or dance sequence that is just for show and doesn't advance the story at all (or have anything to do with it - my (least) favorite example is Gene Kelly's 30 minute dance scene in An American in Paris - I mean I could tell he was a good dancer after the first 30 seconds, now get on with the fucking 'story'). Third, it was very impressive visually. There was a lot of blood but it was very stylized, which seemed to fit the story. Overall, Tim Burton established a consistent and effective tone, which the sets and visual effects had a lot to do with. And lastly, Johnny Depp and Helena Bonham Carter both turned in fantastic performances. They both sounded good singing but also did a great job of effectively expressing their character's feelings in the non-song parts, often with a lack of dialogue. Very impressive. My only complaint was a relatively slow beginning which actually had me dozing off at points (though I had gotten up at 7:30 that morning for Arsenal's raping of Tottenham so I was tired to begin with). But once this movie got going, it was really quite good. Oscar Outlook Sweeney Todd certainly has a legitimate shot in almost all of the major categories. Depp is a lock for at least a Best Actor nomination and I think he'll be the only realistic challenger to Daniel Day-Lewis. As an extremely well-respected actor who has never won before, he is definitely a contender. Helena Bonham Carter also gave a performance worthy of a Supporting Actress nomination, though there's strong competition out there, so she is certainly no lock. Best Picture and Director nominations also look like a good bet. Finally, nominations (and possibly wins) for visual effects, costume design, art direction, and makeup should be forthcoming. And Sweeney Todd will also no doubt dominate the Best Song category. Predictions Best Actor nomination - Depp can't overcome DDL Best Supporting Actress nomination - Bonham Carter sneaks in Best Director nomination - Burton gets his first nom Best Picture nomination - I think this movie will end up with several nominations but no wins in the major categories, though it should be more successful in some of the smaller categories.

Mr. Brooks - 5.0

Mr. Brooks has some decidedly positive elements that hint that it could've been a very effective thriller. First of all, Kevin Costner's character is a dynamic and interesting anti-hero and Costner plays him well, or about as well as Costner can play somebody. Also, surprisingly (to me at least) Demi Moore's turn as a savvy cop on Mr. Brooks' trail is not a disaster either. And the general plot and serial killer set-up is pretty good. Unfortunately, this movie suffers from a couple of unnecessary subplots, namely the other serial killer who Moore's character had put away but is now out of prison and hunting her. I kept waiting for this story to tie into the heart of the movie, the cat and mouse between Costner and Moore, but it never did. This movie would have been significantly better if this story was not included at all. Almost as egregious was the casting of Dane Cook. What a terrible terrible actor (spoiler coming though I doubt many want to see this movie if they haven't already) though the scene where he was killed was one of the more gratifying moments in recent cinema. Bottom line, this was a very flawed film, but had a few saving graces that kept it from disaster status. Oscar Outlook Mr. Brooks doesn't have an Oscar outlook obviously, though a Razzie for Dane Cook would be richly deserved...

Glengarry Glen Ross - 3.0

I'll start off my holiday reviews with the only movie not from 2007 and the most disappointing of the bunch. Glengarry Glen Ross features a ridiculously strong cast (which is why I watched it) with Al Pacino, Kevin Spacey, Jack Lemmon, Alan Arkin (all Oscar winners) as well as Ed Harris and Alec Baldwin (Oscar nominees). While the acting was fine, nobody really stood out besides Pacino's fast-talking real estate salesman. In all, the movie felt staged which isn't surprising since it's apparently a famous play - a problem that wouldn't have been a big deal except the story just wasn't very interesting. Pretty dull movie.