Looking Ahead

In the next week, there are 8 more primaries or caucuses for the Democrats, so after the Super Tuesday draw, these should be vitally important.  Here they are, with my guess as to who is favored.

 

Saturday Feb. 9

-Louisiana - 67 delegates - in the south, large black population, should be a huge Obama win right?

-Nebraska - 31 delegates - Obama just won huge in Kansas, and like Kansas, these are also caucuses, where Obama has yet to lose because of his superior ground organization.  Also hugely favors Obama.

-Washington - 97 delegates - I honestly have no idea how this is trending or what the demographics are.  My guess is that Obama won't be able to draw on the dislike of the Clintons in the Pacific NW like he can in the Midwest and that he doesn't have the advantage of a large black segment of the electorate like in the South.  But I at least characterize the Pacific NW as very progressive which should definitely help Obama (not sure of how many Latinos there are though).  Anyways, Washington is also a caucus state so Obama should certainly win but this might be the best Feb. 9 state for Hillary to challenge in.

-Virgin Islands - 9 delegates - not that it matters but Obama should win this too I'd guess.

 

Sunday Feb. 10

-Maine - 34 delegates - another caucus, I'd expect Obama to win pretty easily.

 

Tuesday Feb. 12

-District of Columbia - 37 delegates, Maryland - 99 delegates, Virginia - 101 delegates - these 3 all should favor Obama in a big way.  My guess is Virginia has the chance to be the closest, but that really is just a guess. 

 

Obama has more money and has already been airing ads in all of these states while Hillary was still solely focused on Super Tuesday.  The fact that she is not expected to do well over the next week should soften the blow some but if she loses every one of these contests, Obama should gain some huge momentum (not to mention a lead in delegates won and perhaps in overall delegates too).  The only other races in February are Hawaii and Wisconsin (both of which also favor Obama) so he'll really need all that momentum because March 4th is Ohio and Texas (161 and 228 delegates) and right now both of these states favor Hillary in a pretty big way.  My hope is that his momentum from probably a 10 state winning streak, his money advantage, and the fact that he'll have 2 weeks between Feb. 19 and March 4 to solely focus on Ohio and Texas (he's had huge bumps the more time he spends in a state) will allow him to at least be very competitive in these two states.  Either way, the rest of February at least looks really good for Obama.