Last Post Here

From now on, I'll be posting on Jeremy's blog...

Clean Sweep

I'm pretty pumped after Obama's clean sweep of Nebraska, Louisiana, and Washington (with 20+ point margins in each).  Yeah, yeah, the demographics of these states favored Obama, Hillary expected to lose, blah, blah, blah.  Well you know what?  The rest of February favors Obama also and if Hillary is shut out she's done.  Just like Giuliani, you can't pin all of your hopes on some state(s) that are a month away and endure a string of losses where your opponent gains invaluable momentum.  Virginia looked like it could've been a toss-up but right now Obama is polling 15-20 points ahead, so it looks like the Potomac Primaries will all 3 go to Obama also.  Wisconsin's primary (on Feb. 19) is probably Hillary's best shot in February for a win but by that point Obama will have a 7 state winning streak (assuming he wins Maine's caucuses tomorrow which is probably not a given but them being caucuses certainly is a big advantage for him) and all the momentum.  Not to mention, he has already been destroying her in the midwest, so even though the polls are close right now, I'd be shocked if Hillary won Wisconsin.  I just can't see her winning Texas and Ohio decisively after 2 weeks where Obama, with all the momentum, can focus solely on these 2 states.  Maybe I'm being too optimistic but in my opinion, things are looking great for Obama right now (and this is not even taking into account all the play the national polls where Obama is consistently doing better vs. McCain than Hillary is have been getting recently).

Pearl Jam

I've always liked Pearl Jam but recently I've started to really get into them more.  I just randomly came across this great live performance of a great song (Porch).  It makes me jealous that Jeremy has seen them live 30 times or whatever...

Writers' Strike Over?

It appears that the writers' strike might finally be coming to an end.  Perfect timing too so now they can get back to filming those last 8 episodes of the new season of LOST.

Looking Ahead

In the next week, there are 8 more primaries or caucuses for the Democrats, so after the Super Tuesday draw, these should be vitally important.  Here they are, with my guess as to who is favored.

 

Saturday Feb. 9

-Louisiana - 67 delegates - in the south, large black population, should be a huge Obama win right?

-Nebraska - 31 delegates - Obama just won huge in Kansas, and like Kansas, these are also caucuses, where Obama has yet to lose because of his superior ground organization.  Also hugely favors Obama.

-Washington - 97 delegates - I honestly have no idea how this is trending or what the demographics are.  My guess is that Obama won't be able to draw on the dislike of the Clintons in the Pacific NW like he can in the Midwest and that he doesn't have the advantage of a large black segment of the electorate like in the South.  But I at least characterize the Pacific NW as very progressive which should definitely help Obama (not sure of how many Latinos there are though).  Anyways, Washington is also a caucus state so Obama should certainly win but this might be the best Feb. 9 state for Hillary to challenge in.

-Virgin Islands - 9 delegates - not that it matters but Obama should win this too I'd guess.

 

Sunday Feb. 10

-Maine - 34 delegates - another caucus, I'd expect Obama to win pretty easily.

 

Tuesday Feb. 12

-District of Columbia - 37 delegates, Maryland - 99 delegates, Virginia - 101 delegates - these 3 all should favor Obama in a big way.  My guess is Virginia has the chance to be the closest, but that really is just a guess. 

 

Obama has more money and has already been airing ads in all of these states while Hillary was still solely focused on Super Tuesday.  The fact that she is not expected to do well over the next week should soften the blow some but if she loses every one of these contests, Obama should gain some huge momentum (not to mention a lead in delegates won and perhaps in overall delegates too).  The only other races in February are Hawaii and Wisconsin (both of which also favor Obama) so he'll really need all that momentum because March 4th is Ohio and Texas (161 and 228 delegates) and right now both of these states favor Hillary in a pretty big way.  My hope is that his momentum from probably a 10 state winning streak, his money advantage, and the fact that he'll have 2 weeks between Feb. 19 and March 4 to solely focus on Ohio and Texas (he's had huge bumps the more time he spends in a state) will allow him to at least be very competitive in these two states.  Either way, the rest of February at least looks really good for Obama.

Delegate Count

This site has a good running total of delegates won (much better than any of the news site are providing at the moment).  As of right now, Hillary won Super Tuesday 655-640, but California still has 210 delegates not yet assigned (good for Hillary obviously).  However, Georgia, Illinois, and Colorado have a combined 103 delegates not yet assigned also, and since Obama won each of these of states by huge margins that should more or less offset the California delegates and we'll end up with Hillary winning Super Tuesday by a very very small margin (looks like my hope that Obama could keep it within 50-100 delegates was a little too conservative).  Basically after Super Tuesday, delegates won (so not counting super delegates -  Obama was up by 15 coming in) should be a virtual tie.

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday didn't go quite as well as I hoped in some states (Cali, Mass, NJ) but all in all, it isn't a bad result at all for Obama.  It truly is a split decision, Obama won more states (13 to 8 right now with NM still up in the air) but Hillary did better in the big states.  To show just how close it is, the total 'popular vote' for each candidate as of 2:30 AM tonight (using CNN's numbers) is 6,212,188 for Obama and 6,186,726 for Hillary.  For Obama to compete like that nationally really is impressive, especially considering he was losing in just about every one of these states two weeks ago besides Illinois.  The states coming up favor Obama so if he can stay within 50-100 delegates after everything is tallied up today, then he has a legit chance to have a lead in delegates by the end of the month.  It really is still up in the air but I'm hoping that having the primaries spread out more now will benefit Obama, as will his money advantage. 

4 things I'm excited about

So there are four things over the next two days that I would normally really be looking forward to individually and by coincidence or divine providence they are all happening in a short period of time.  They are: Super Tuesday, Duke at UNC, Mexico vs. USA and national signing day for college football recruits.  Just for fun, I'll rate my excitement (in order):

 

1. Duke/UNC - 10/10 on the excitement scale - #2 vs. #3 (damn you Memphis for not losing and setting up #1 vs. #2), at the Dean Dome, I'm going, it doesn't get a whole better than that (well unless Ty Lawson was playing that is).

 

2. Super Tuesday - also a 10 but loses out to Duke/UNC for me, though I wouldn't have thought an election (and even more a primary) could get this close to the biggest game in college basketball in my eyes.  But what I can say, my Obama boner is raging.  Like Duke/UNC, I'm hoping for the best but still preparing for the worst.  Put me on suicide watch if Hillary wins big and the Heels lose as well.

 

3. Mexico/USA - 8/10 - would be more excited if it was a qualifier instead of a friendly but Mexico is bringing a really strong team and the US hasn't had a big game in a while, so I'm getting pretty pumped (sadly I'll have to watch it recorded since it's on at the exact same time as Duke/UNC - as many nights as I've got nothing to watch and the two best sporting events in a while have to be on at the exact same time?).  I'm especially excited to see Adu and Altidore, not to mention the scoring machine Michael Bradley (he has literally been scoring every game for Heerenveen for the last month now and has 16 goals on the season - and he's a midfielder!).

 

4. National signing day - 7/10 - I've been following UNC's football recruiting more this year than ever in the past so I'm pretty excited for this.  We've got a decent class so far but signing day is huge and there are several big recruits we're still in the picture for.  Though I'm not nearly as obsessive about college football as basketball, it would be pretty cool to have a good football team, and with Butch Davis at the helm, I'm sure we'll eventually get there.

Could it be?

Checking out some of the new polls and man they look good for Obama.  Ahead by 1 and 6 points in California in 2 different polls.  Ahead by 22 points in Georgia.  Ahead by 5 points in Missouri.  Ahead by 3 points and behind by 1 points in 2 different national.  Behind by only 6 points in New Jersey.  I'm hesitant to get my hopes up after the NH polling debacle but I am definitely cautiously optimistic for tomorrow.

Once - 8.5

Once tells the story of two lost souls who find each other, and themselves, over the course of a music-filled week in Dublin.  Its indie roots and plot, along with its subtlety and intelligence, remind me of Before Sunrise and Before Sunset with very good music substituted for realistic dialogue.  And while I'm not normally a fan of musicals, the songs in this film undoubtedly work.  Not only were they 'good' songs in general, they advance the plot in a creative and unique way.  I found myself moved (not to tears mind you but moved none the less) by this movie and the passion evident in the music (which was written and performed by the two lead actors) played a huge role in this.  To top it all off, in contrast to another relatively similar movie like Garden State that was entertaining and admirable throughout but cheapened itself by taking the easy way out when it came time to provide a conclusion, Once had a pitch-perfect ending that was worthy of the excellence of the rest of the film.  I will eventually post my final 2007 movie rankings after I see I'm Not There, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and a few others, but it is safe to say that as of right now the only movie I'd definitely rank above Once is Atonement.

LOST

While I was not blown away by the season premier of LOST tonight, I did really enjoy it and like the direction it is going in. It definitely felt like an episode meant to set the stage more than anything else. The switch to flash-forwards is brilliant since the flashbacks were becoming more and more superfluous towards the end of last season. There's still tons of mysteries out there (of course) and more questions than answers but I am excited to see where it goes from here with Jack vs. Locke, who are the other 3 besides Jack, Hurley, and Kate that are part of the 'Oceanic 6', what happened to everyone else that didn't get off the island (if not dead, still on the island I presume? Jack betrayed them in some way to get off maybe...), who was in the casket in the season 3 finale, who are the people from the Naomi's boat, etc, etc. And oh yeah, what the hell is going on with this Jacob stuff? On that note, a screenshot from what Hurley saw in the cabin: Yep that looks like Jack's dad and no that doesn't look like the 'Jacob' Locke saw last season (that Jacob actually looked a lot like Locke). No clue what it means but certainly an interesting twist. I hate that we have to wait a week for a new episode and hate it even more that in all likelihood the damn writers' strike is going to leave us with only 8 episodes this season. I just hope those 8 episodes are as good as the last 8 from last year.