Oscars

A Jeremy style Oscar preview post, with who I think will win and who I think should win.

Best Picture
Will Win - The Social Network in a mini-upset over The King's Speech.
Should Win - I think Inception is my favorite movie from 2010 (I'll be posting a complete ranking in the next few days) but I think The Social Network has that combination of quality and timeliness (and timelessness) that make it the better choice as Best Picture for the year.

Best Actor
Will Win - Colin Firth, this one's a slam-dunk.
Should Win - Firth was amazing but I've said all along I was more impressed by James Franco's turn in 127 Hours where he completely carried the movie.  So he's been my personal favorite for the last several months; that is until I saw Biutiful and Javier Bardem blew my mind.  So Bardem would be my choice if I had a vote.

Best Actress
Will Win - Natalie Portman.
Should Win - Plenty of strong performances here.  I just saw Blue Valentine and Michelle Williams was superb and I really liked Jennifer Lawrence's film-carrying performance in Winter's Bone.  But Portman has always been on of my favorites and I'm not going to turn my back on her now (even though she's engaged and pregnant).

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Christian Bale
Should Win - Bale.  Geoffrey Rush was great in The King's Speech, and even stole the show from Firth at times, and I'm tempted to go with Jeremy Renner as the only representative from one of my favorite films of the year, The Town, but Bale's transformation into a totally unrecognizable character should earn him the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - This is the upset category.  I was leaning towards picking Helena Bonham Carter but I'll go with Hailee Steinfeld, after Amy Adams and Melissa Leo split votes for The Fighter.
Should Win - Steinfeld probably had the most important role of any of the nominees in their respective films but I just wasn't a big fan of True Grit, so I'd go with Leo, who was also exceptional as the bad/good (but mostly bad) mother.

Best Director
Will Win - Fincher.
Should Win - I'm tempted by Aronofsky and his unique visual style but I'll go with Fincher.  Christopher Nolan, if nominated, would get my vote.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win - Sorkin for The Social Network.
Should Win - Sorkin without a doubt.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - King's Speech.
Should Win - King's Speech.

TCM 31 Days of Oscar

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Quick Reviews

The American - 3.0 - This wonderfully shot film at first seemed intriguing with its ominous air of mystery, but as the pace slowed to a crawl, I was more or less bored out of my mind.  Even George Clooney's natural charisma was neutralized by the tedious pacing; the first 80 minutes of the film literally revolved around his character building a gun.  I was actually quite impressed someone could make a movie about assassins and prostitutes this boring.

The Quiet American - 6.0 - I'm pretty sure the George Clooney feature discussed above would've gone for this title if it wasn't already taken (The Dull American or The Bored American would've worked as well).  Anyways, I 75% watched this one with the family (it's always a much too difficult/protracted task choosing a movie to watch on netflix, admittedly primarily due to my pickiness) and thought it was a moderately interesting story, elevated by a captivating performance by Michael Caine.

Restrepo - 7.0 - Restrepo is a recently Oscar nominated documentary about the war in Afghanistan.  Documentaries are always hard for me to rate since a big part of my scale loosely involves entertainment/rewatchability, and I can't think of a single documentary that I'd ever want to watch a second time (Jeremy swears by Hoop Dreams but I only saw it once a long, long time ago).  Anyways, Restrepo sacrifices structure and character development and instead just throws the viewer in with a battalion of soldiers (I think it was a battalion, maybe a squad... not like I have any idea what the difference is either way).  This is a very effective way of providing (what I would assume to be) a realistic depiction of what it's like to serve in Afghanistan; i.e. it sucks.  Like a lot of war movies, it also forced me to consider that uneasy balance between appreciating soldiers for doing things I would never in a million years want to do and acknowledging that I, a (liberal, bleeding heart) civilian, can never understand what it's like to go through what they go through, while also being slightly uncomfortable (if not disturbed) by some of their actions (like the general glorification of violence -- cheering when you kill people, etc).  I think I'll just say I'm glad it's not me and I'll refrain from judging a soldier except for the most egregious offenses, and leave it at that.